amny.com/news/local/am-mayorcandid1107,0,4090854.story
amNY.com
November 7, 2007
2009
mayoral campaign shaping up
By David Freedlander, amNewYork Staff Writer
dfreedlander@am-ny.com
The barely noticed 2007 general election passed without so
much as a blip yesterday, quietly marking the beginning of the 2009 mayoral
campaign.
Yes, even though a heated presidential campaign with a New
York-edge looms before us, the race to City Hall is steadily gathering momentum
with several all-but-announced candidates raising money -- and their profiles.
The campaign promises to be a feast for political junkies,
with an exceptionally strong group in the running.
The field is far from set, and there is plenty of time for
late aspirants to make a serious bid. (We're looking at you, Ray Kelly.) While
it is still hard to talk with certainty, amNewYork asked several political
analysts to peer into their crystal balls and tell us what they see.
The Springboard: Congressman from Brooklyn
The Haul: $2,008,360*
The Quick Read: Weiner made an impressive run late in the
2005 primary when former City Council Speaker Gifford Miller's campaign
collapsed, then did the classy, savvy thing and stepped aside for Fernando
Ferrer. The single and smart-alecky Charles Schumer protege will try to follow
Ed Koch's path to City Hall, moving from D.C. to the Big Apple. He appeals to
young professionals and anxious outer-borough white ethnic voters. But can he
catch lightening in a bottle twice? He also has to make sure that Carrion
doesn't steal white Catholic voters and that Quinn not do the same with
outer-borough women. The potential presence of little-known conservative Queens
City Councilman Tony Avella could chip dangerously at his base.
The Bottom Line: "He's got tremendous energy, he can
raise a lot of money, and he's been through this before. The problem is
outer-borough Catholics and Jews, which are his base, are all dying or moving
to Florida," said political consultant Hank Sheinkopf.
The Springboard: City comptroller
The Haul: $3,169,394
The Quick Read: He toyed with making a run in 2005. He is
the only candidate who has been elected citywide and is generally perceived to
have done a good job as comptroller. He has a broad base of support among
blacks, and can point to a solid record of making city life better. He is
thought by some to be too cautious and devoid of the personality New Yorkers
like in a mayor. He reminds many of former Mayor David Dinkins, who many New
Yorkers don't fondly recall. He could be hurt by his ties to disgraced former
Brooklyn Democratic powerhouse Clarence Norman. His showing could indicate the
strength of black political power, which many feel is waning.
The Bottom Line: "He starts with some significant
advantages, mainly by being comptroller and being elected citywide. The
comptroller's office is not a notable stepping stone for the mayor's job,
though," said Douglas Muzzio, a professor of public affairs at Baruch
College.
The Springboard: Speaker of the City Council
The Haul: $1,383,935
The Quick Read: She made history as the first woman and
openly gay person to become City Council speaker, following a career as a
neighborhood activist. She's warm, personable, and well-respected. A transition
from speaker to mayoral candidate would be tough, as the last two to try failed
miserably. Her job keeps her in the public eye more than the other hopefuls.
Her fate probably is tied with that of the city during the next two years. She
must convince outer-borough women to vote for a fellow female.
The Bottom Line: "Being the first female mayor counts
for something. She shows up at the debate with four guys in blue suits and red
ties and she's got on a red skirt suit, she won't have to knock people over the
head," said longtime political consultant Joseph Mercurio.
The Springboard: Bronx borough president
The Haul: $1,364,876
The Quick Read: The Bronx borough president announced his
intentions practically before his predecessor, Ferrer, had conceded in 2005.
He's the highest-ranking Latino elected official in the state, and has
attracted businesses to the Bronx. He would run on a message of keeping the
city moving forward economically. He must broaden his base outside of the Bronx
and beyond Puerto Ricans and convince white Catholics that he shares their
values. The diminishment of borough presidents' powers in recent years hurts
him. He's an urban planner by training, which could help. He's counting on one
of the others to stumble.
The Bottom Line: "He comes across as a very young,
smart handsome guy with a lot of great ideas. If he talks a little bit more
about the kind of leadership that gets the Yankee Stadium deal done he can
position himself very well, but he and Billy \[Thompson\] are competing over
the same base of support," said consultant Basil Smikle.
*All political contributions as of July 16, 2007. Source:
Campaign Finance Board
Aside from the Big Four, here are some players who could
potentially shake up the race.
Raymond Kelly, chief of Police:
An immediate favorite if he chooses to run.
Dick Parsons, departing CEO, Time Warner:
May follow fellow rich guy Bloomberg in making a run, but
could get snared with questions about people's cable bills.
John Catsimatidis, CEO, Gristedes Foods Inc.:
Gets props for not being coy about his intentions, but still
something of a long shot.
Marty Markowitz, Brooklyn borough president:
Probably too parochial to be formidable citywide;
affiliation with Atlantic Yards won't help.
Tony Avella, councilman from Bayside, Queens: See
Catsimatidis; could play a spoiler.
Betsy Gotbaum, public advocate: Personal tragedy and
an uninspired two terms as public advocate makes her an unlikely contender.
John Liu, councilman from Flushing: The city's first
Asian-American councilman is a rising star in the party, but this may not be
the time for him to make his move.
Copyright © 2007, AM New York